Bird Flu
        and You

                                                   Bird Flu-Worst-Case Scenario

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Bird Flu-Worst-Case Scenario

TJ Smith

Sidenote: Hope you're finding this useful? I have always been curious about this matter. And when I found very little quality information about it, I decided to share a part of what I've learned about it - which is why this article came to be written. Read on.

There has been a lot of buzz about bird flu or the avian influenza and how it could become a global pandemic. What would a pandemic really mean? The federal government just launched a 7 billion dollar program to help the prevention and out break of a bird flu pandemic. There have only been 83 deaths from avian flu worldwide since 2003. Health experts have not yet seen evidence of human to human transmission. So what does it mean? And why is everyone so worried about a pandemic?

This new strain of flu virus would be more resistant than other normal flu strains and if it turns into a form that passes easily from person to person, we would have little immunity to it. Millions could become ill and millions would die. Once it starts to spread it could move rapidly around the world infecting millions and affecting the lives of everyone. The World Bank, which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could, cost the global economy up to $800 billion. The economic toll on the world economy will be catastrophic. What is the worst-case scenario and how might it develop?

Here is how a bird flu pandemic might unfold:

Outbreaks of avian flu in birds continue in several additional countries outside of Southeast Asia including Russia, Africa and the Middle East
Human cases of bird flu increase
Health experts confirm first human-to-human transmissions
Flu screening is stepped up at airports around the world for passengers coming from infected countries
Health care workers show signs of increased exposure
Air travel spreads virus to all corners of the globe within 3 months
First confirmed human transmission cases appear in Europe Russia, and the United States
Outbreaks continue, becoming more widespread reaching epidemic status
Regional stockpiles of antivirals quickly dwindle, new high volume production and distribution is 6 months off
International flights are reduced or eliminated to help contain spread of the flu
Billions are lost on international commerce, affecting millions of jobs around the world
US imports from Asian factories halted as Asian workers fall ill, US inventories drop
International trade devastated
US economy feels effects of loss of productivity due to millions of workers out sick
Financial markets hit by panic selling, gold prices soar
Run on banks as investors convert to cash
Hospitals see surge in flu patients overwhelming staff and supplies, only those most likely to live given access to limited available ventilators
Healthcare workers and first responders out sick or stay home to care for ill family members
Public events are canceled and schools are closed
Government offices closed, non essential services shut down
Social services reduced or eliminated. Services still functioning are overwhelmed
Public transportation halted
Air traffic halted due to air traffic controllers, airport staff and flight crews out sick
Interstate commerce greatly reduced with truck drivers, warehouse and rail workers out sick
Food deliveries, gas deliveries, other essential supplies all reduced or eliminated
Grocery stores close due to shipments being eliminated
Food distribution chain from farm to stores breaks down
Travel restricted, quarantines mandatory, enforced by National Guard
Widespread looting and riots over food shortages and access to healthcare
Local, State police and National Guard overwhelmed
Social structure breaks down
Domestic violence increases as people are forced to stay home
Loss of workers affects all businesses across the economy, including finance, sanitation, utilities, internet, distribution, energy, retail, tourism and travel
Utility outages increase as coal shipments are reduced and minimum required staffs at power plants and water plants are out sick
Funeral homes are overwhelmed as bodies stack up
2nd wave of pandemic bird flu hits
Global economy will take years to recover from catastrophic losses and loss of trained employees who died

Does the above scare you? Think it won't happen? Well this is the exact scenario your local, state and federal governments are training and planning for. How would you survive? It has always been recommended to keep 3 days of supplies on hand to survive a natural disaster. We have seen how the federal government handles natural disasters. The above scenario isnt for 3 days or 3 weeks. It might last up to 3 years.

How would you survive being housebound for several months? What if you couldn't go to work or to the grocery store? What if you had love ones that were sick? You need to stay informed about a possible bird flu pandemic and learn how to provide for yourself and your family. It may not happen in the near future but health experts agree it will happen. It is just a matter of time.

TJ Smith writes about avian flu and the coming pandemic.To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index Find links to bird flu websites, blogs, forums, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news and the coming pandemic visit The Pandemic Zone

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